Core Tip: Transformer has been a major modern power network construction equipment, power generation, transmission and distribution, power distribution all play a key role. In recent years, thanks to a large amount of infrastructure investment and the rapid development of the power industry, the scale of the transformer industry has expanded rapidly and its production capacity has risen sharply. However, there are also problems such as low industry concentration and outdated technology.

Transformer has been the main equipment of modern power network construction, and plays a key role in power generation, transmission and distribution, and distribution. In recent years, thanks to a large amount of infrastructure investment and the rapid development of the power industry, the scale of the transformer industry has expanded rapidly and its production capacity has risen sharply. However, there are also problems such as low industry concentration and outdated technology. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, the state has readjusted its energy structure and built a smart grid and other strategic plans, which brought new development opportunities for the transformer industry and raised higher technical challenges: mature and further popularization of new energy power generation technologies will strongly promote New energy transformer market, but the transformer safety and stability requirements more stringent; "strong smart grid" upgrade project will not only create incremental market space, it will also open a huge stock market backward transformer upgrade, energy-saving, intelligent Type transformers will become the development trend of the industry, the traditional transformer manufacturers to face the elimination of excess capacity; rail construction speed, the popularity of electric vehicles, will create a new growth point for the transformer industry. Energy-saving, reliable and intelligent transformers are the cornerstone of building a new type of power network in our country and an important guarantee for promoting the reform of the energy system.

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1, the new energy transformer has a vast market space

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China's energy structure is dominated by fossil fuels. The resulting environment and resource pressure are becoming more and more severe. It is imperative to promote energy transformation and build a clean energy system. During the "12th Five-Year Plan" period, new energy power generation has made great strides. By 2015, non-thermal power generation will account for 26.3% of total electricity generation, up 7% from 2010, and the energy structure will be effectively improved. According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan for Electric Power Development," the goal: By 2020, non-thermal power installed capacity reached 770 million kilowatts, the proportion of generating capacity increased to 31%.

China's thermal power and non-thermal power generation accounted for

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The construction of new energy power station gave birth to the power generation substation equipment demand, effectively stimulating the continued growth of the transformer market, but also put forward higher requirements for the corresponding transformer products. Wind power, solar energy and other new energy generation with intermittent, random, scheduling poor characteristics require transformer equipment has a higher stability and reliability; wind power stations, solar power plants where the environment is relatively harsh, decentralized layout, the transformer Requires a high degree of environmental adaptability and should have a visual real-time monitoring function to reduce the frequency of maintenance. Nuclear power stations are extremely demanding on the safety of transformers and need to withstand extreme earthquakes and sudden short-circuits at the end of their useful lives. The rapid development of new energy industry, laid the foundation for supporting the growth of the transformer industry, but also promote the technological transformation of the transformer industry.

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(1) Wind power

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① wind power situation

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Wind power is one of the most mature renewable energy technologies in the new energy industry with the highest economic potential, the most potential for development and the commercialization of the wind power industry. Wind power has achieved large-scale application worldwide. Wind power accounts for 30% of new installed capacity in Europe since 2000, and wind power accounts for 33% of new installed capacity in the United States since 2007. The United States also proposed that the share of wind power will increase in 2030 To 20%. With the continuous improvement of wind power technology, the cost of wind power continues to decline. The long-term agreement price of wind power in the United States has dropped to the same level as the price of fossil fuels, and the economy of electricity has been highlighted.

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② China wind power industry development process

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The development of wind power has become an important channel for many countries in promoting energy transformation and an important way to combat climate change. It is also an important means for China to further promote the energy production and consumption revolution and promote the prevention and control of air pollution. The wind power industry has experienced three different stages of development in China: 1) The promulgation and implementation of the Renewable Energy Law 2006-2009 and 2006 opened the golden age of the wind power industry. The installed capacity of wind power increased rapidly and a large number of enterprises entered the wind power equipment Areas, wind power equipment localization level increased significantly. 2) The wind power industry in 2010-2012 witnessed a turning point in 2010, with the trend of overcapacity and oversupply. It is difficult to connect with the grid and the problem of "abandoning the windward" highlighted the fact that the large-scale wind power outage in 2011 triggered a series of industry standards promulgated by the government , The construction of wind farms suddenly slowed down, and the newly installed capacity dropped for three consecutive years. 3) From 2013-2016 and 2013, the wind power industry started to rebound and entered a period of steady development. At the same time, a number of new trends emerged: small-scale onshore wind farms developed towards high-power and offshore wind power, and wind power construction shifted from the "three north" to the east , The development in the southern part of the country has seen continuous improvement in the integration and consumption of wind power and the cost of wind power has been reduced. At the same time, the national electricity price subsidy policy has contracted, and the wind power industry has been transformed from a policy-driven to a market-driven.

Wind power benchmark price adjustment process

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As of the end of 2016, the total wind power installed capacity in China reached 149 million kilowatts, accounting for 1-1-1499.03% of the total installed capacity of China's power grids and 241.1 billion kwh of grid-connected electricity, accounting for 4.02% of the country's total generating capacity. Wind power has become China's second largest hydropower, The third largest power source after the coal.

China Wind Power Installed Capacity 2010-2016 (10000 kW)

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③ China's wind power industry market prospects

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December 2016 The 13th Five-Year Plan for Wind Power Development promulgated by the National Energy Administration put forward the overall goals and measures for the development of wind power: By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of wind power will reach 210 million kilowatts and the annual generating capacity of wind power will reach 420 billion KWh, accounting for 6% of the total generating capacity of the country; optimizing the location configuration of wind power construction, promoting wind energy consumption, upgrading the technological level of wind power and improving the wind power industry management system. According to the onshore wind power investment of 7,800 yuan / kW and offshore wind power investment of 16,000 yuan / kW, the total investment in wind power construction during the "13th Five-Year Plan" will reach over 700 billion yuan. With abundant wind energy resources and a mature foundation for wind power industry chain, the demand for clean energy is pressingly challenged. With the progress of wind power technology, cost reduction, optimization of configuration and improvement of the system, it is expected that China's wind power industry will enter a period of sustained and healthy development with a vast market potential in the future.

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④ wind power transformer supporting the development and market prospects

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The construction of wind power plants has a high demand for transformers. Each wind power generator needs to be equipped with a box-type substation. The station also needs a number of high-voltage main transformers and substations with medium and low voltage power transformers. Due to the instability of wind power output power, transformer no-load and high load loss, high-power voltage regulator transformer energy-saving requirements are higher; layout of wind power stations are scattered and remote, the transformer needs to have a low failure rate, maintenance-free features ; Wind power transformers need to withstand wind and sand environment, especially for offshore wind power transformers, but also need to be able to withstand the long-term corrosion of sea salt, high reliability requirements. In recent years, with the wind power installed capacity continues to rise, the rapid development of wind power transformer industry, technology continues to mature, the cost continues to decline, according to "13th Five-Year" plan wind power installed capacity of 210 million kilowatts of development goals, by 2020, wind power transformer Capacity may exceed 230 million kVA, the market space is very broad.

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(2) Solar power generation

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① solar power situation

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Solar energy has the characteristics of permanent, large reserves, clean and pollution-free, and is currently the most mature renewable energy resource with the most widely distributed resources. The utilization of solar power is divided into two kinds of photovoltaic power generation and solar thermal power generation, of which photovoltaic technology has been large-scale applications around the world. As of the end of 2015, the total installed capacity of solar power generation in the world reached 230 million kilowatts. In that year, it added more than 53 million kilowatts of installed capacity, accounting for 20% of newly installed power generation capacity in the world. Since 2006, the average annual growth rate of installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation has surpassed 40%.

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② China solar energy industry development process

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The cyclical fluctuations of the solar energy industry is more obvious, experienced several rounds of prosperity and depression conversion. The rapid growth of China's solar energy industry began in 2004, Germany, Italy, Spain and other European countries out of strategic considerations for the development of clean alternative energy, began to build a large number of photovoltaic power plants, which gave birth to solar panels and other photovoltaic equipment, huge demand in China's PV equipment production expanded rapidly during this period. After the financial crisis in 2008, the investment in Europe and the United States declined substantially. In order to support the development of the PV industry, digest excess photovoltaic capacity and speed up the construction of a new energy system, in 2010, the government introduced Golden Sun Demonstration Project and a series of subsidy policies to promote the PV industry in China from photovoltaic modules Production base to the photovoltaic power generation market changes to achieve from the manufacturing end to the market side of the extension of the industrial chain, a positive policy environment has led to the explosive investment in photovoltaic power plants, but access subsidies for this round of photovoltaic leap forward also brought attention Power station construction, contempt and network supporting and economic benefits and other hidden dangers. From 2011 to 2013, with a series of outstanding problems such as overcapacity, high cost and difficulty in grid connection, and the tightening of the state subsidy policy, the pace of construction of photovoltaic power plants slowed down and the industry entered a period of deep adjustment. Since 2014, although tariff subsidies and other policies have been gradually tightened and parity Internet access has become a trend, with the progress of photovoltaic technologies, the declining cost of installed capacity, the improvement of power generation efficiency, improved grid integration, the outdated production capacity and the improvement of the competitive environment, the solar energy industry Begin to recover and gradually enter the market-oriented sustainable development track.

Photovoltaic benchmark price adjustment process

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At present, China has gradually established a sound solar energy industry policy system, defined the price, subsidies, taxes, grid and other multi-level policy framework, established the industry standards and testing and certification system. The level of industrialization of solar manufacturing continues to improve, power generation technology is rapidly improving, the photoelectric conversion efficiency continues to improve, and the scale of solar power generation has expanded significantly. In 2016, the newly installed capacity of solar power in China reached 34.79 million kilowatts, with a cumulative installed capacity of 77.42 million kilowatts.

China Solar Power Installed Capacity 2010-2016 (10,000 kW)

③ China's solar energy industry market prospects

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In December 2016, the 13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development promulgated by the National Energy Administration put forward the overall goal of solar energy development: By the end of 2020, the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach over 110 million kilowatts, generating 150 billion kilowatt hours of electricity. Photovoltaic power generation Tariff levels dropped by more than 50% on the basis of 2015, achieving the goal of parity access on the electricity consumption side; the industrialized conversion efficiency of advanced crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells has reached more than 23%. The planning key points out that it is necessary to promote distributed photovoltaic construction and micro-grid supporting projects, give priority to the distribution of distributed photovoltaic power generation capacity, build a distributed generation grid-connected technical support system and organize distributed power trading. It can be foreseen that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", the solar energy industry, especially the distributed photovoltaic power stations and solar thermal power generation, will achieve sustained and steady development.

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④ solar power transformer development and market prospects

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Solar power plants are usually equipped with one 1-KVA transformer for every 2 500-kilowatt generating units and several high-voltage main transformers and substations for substations in the grid. The construction of solar power plants has a high demand for transformers. With the development of photovoltaic power generation technology and the development of high-power inverters, the transformers for solar power generation gradually develop towards large-capacity and integrated development. The centralized photovoltaic power plants are usually installed in the desert or plateau with strong sunshine and require the corresponding transformers to have a strong environment adaptability. According to the development plan of the "13th Five-Year Plan", the installed capacity of solar power generation will reach 110 million kilowatts by 2020, and the corresponding supporting transformer capacity will likely reach 110 million kilovolt-amperes. 9, With greater room for growth.

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(3) nuclear power generation

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① nuclear power generation situation

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Nuclear power and thermal power, hydropower and the world's three major power supply pillars, compared to traditional thermal power and other nuclear power, nuclear power has little environmental impact, less resource consumption, and compared to wind power, photovoltaic and other new energy sources, nuclear power shows high power generation, Strong supply capacity, stable operating power from environmental factors and other characteristics. According to the International Atomic Energy Agency statistics, as of the end of 2015, nuclear power generation accounted for more than 20% of the total nuclear power generation in 14 countries, of which 76.3% in France and 19.5% and 18.6% in the United States and Russia respectively. 10 Nuclear power has become One of the most important non-fossil fuels in the world.

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② China's nuclear power industry development process

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The commissioning of the Qinshan Nuclear Power Station independently designed and manufactured by China in 1991 marked the beginning of China's nuclear power industry. As nuclear power plants such as Daya Bay, Ling'ao and Tianwan gradually built up, the commercialization of nuclear power in China is gradually becoming more mature. In the field of independent research and development Import and digestion, nuclear safety supervision, nuclear power operation and other fields continue to improve.

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In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear accident caused great concern for nuclear safety in our country. After the suspension of nuclear project approval and the comprehensive security inspection of existing equipment, the State Council passed the Nuclear Safety Inspection Report and Nuclear Safety Plan in May 2012, China's nuclear power project restarted. In May 2015, the first demonstration project of "Hualong-1", the third-generation nuclear power technology of China, officially started construction at Unit 5 of Fuqing NPP, marking the rapid development of China's independent nuclear power technology. In that year, China approved a total of 8 nuclear power generation projects, China's nuclear power industry began to speed up. As of January 1, 2017, there are 35 nuclear power units built and put into operation in China, with a cumulative installed capacity of 33.5 million kilowatts. There are 22 nuclear power units under construction. 11 The nuclear power generation accounted for about 3.56% of the total nuclear power generation in 2016.

China's nuclear power installed capacity 2010-2016 (10,000 kilowatts)

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③ China's nuclear power industry market prospects

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In November 2016, the "Thirteenth Five-year Plan for Electricity Development" promulgated by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration proposed to promote the construction of nuclear power plants along the coast. By 2020, the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 58 million kilowatts. While promoting the construction of nuclear power in China, China has firmly implemented the "going global" strategy for nuclear industry and actively participated in international competition. The nuclear power cooperation projects with Britain, Pakistan, Romania, Argentina and South Africa have started one after another. Among the countries along the "Belt and Road" , A total of 17 countries plan to develop nuclear power, the number of planning units reached 120 units, a very broad space for overseas markets. Based on the tremendous demand in the international and domestic markets, China's nuclear power industry will also have profound potential for development in the future.

China plans to build an overview of nuclear power plants